THIS AVALANCHE ADVISORY EXPIRED ON March 14, 2017 @ 5:29 am
Avalanche Advisory published on March 13, 2017 @ 5:29 am
Issued by Kent May - Payette Avalanche Center
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE due to human triggered avalanches being possible. Above 7000 feet be on the lookout for wind slabs, primarily on north and east aspects. Also, warm temperatures and sun will increase the chance of loose wet avalanches in very steep terrain. If the sun comes out for more than a few hours the danger will rise on all sunny slopes. Middle and low elevation slopes in the shade, the avalanche danger is LOW.

How to read the advisory


  • Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Yesterday was a cooker! Granite Mountain weather station reached 34 degrees and Brundage Reservoir SNOTEL topped out at 44 degrees. With temperatures that high, and with the temperatures around the area struggling to get below freezing last night, it won't take much solar impact or temperature rise today to soften the snow pack. If you're looking for soft snow start on east or southeast facing terrain and then just follow the sun around, ending on west facing slopes at the end of the day.

This is the time of year where you want to have a plan for your day, and have an exit strategy. In the afternoon when the snow is damp and manky, you will want to stay out from under steep slopes and cornices and have a route back to the truck that avoids terrain traps like gullies and creeks.

 

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slab
  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

With the warm temperatrues, and not too much snow left for transport, the danger of wind slab avalanches is decreasing. If you are hunting for cold snow, and are traveling in high elevation north facing and/or shady aspects, have your wind slab goggles on and be on the lookout for any obvious signs of slab formation. Drummy, pillowy, or chalky looking snow surfaces in the shade will be some of your clues for wind slabs.

advisory discussion

Snowmobiler/Snowbiker Travel Restrictions: Please respect these closures and other users recreating in them.  Winter Travel Map(East side). You can download the map to the AVENZA app on your phone, and know your exact location while you are out riding.  It is your responsiblity to know where closures exist on the forest.

The Granite Mountain Area Closure is in effect Jan15-March 31, please respect Snowcats operating, signed and unsigned closures and other users in this and nearby areas.  In addition there are other areas on the Payette National Forest that are CLOSED to snowmobile traffic including Jughandle Mt east of Jug Meadows, North of Boulder Mtn, East of Rapid Peak, North of the 20 mile drainage, Lick Creek/Lake Fork Drainage (on the right side of the road as you are traveling up canyon), and the area north of Brundage Mt Ski area to junction "V" and along the east side of Brundage and Sergeants' Mts. with the exception of the Lookout Rd( junction "S").

Photo 1 is from the edge of the signed Brundage Mt. Ski Area just past the Ski Area parking lot, photo 2 is of sled tracks ignoring Catski terrain signs...there is alot of snow out there folks.  Don't be "that" guy on a sled that gives sledders a bad reputation... please respect closures and other users.

The Friends of the Payette Avalanche Center (FPAC) needs YOU! We are in desperate need of more user support and financial assistance. The avalanche forecast is not a guaranteed service, and is in jeopardy of dwindling down to only a couple of days a week in the near future.We have equipment that is overdue for replacement but lack the funds to purchase new gear including weather station parts and our forecast sleds.  Please help if you can by clicking the DONATE tab above. If you value this life saving information, make a donation or help the FPAC in raising funds for the future.

recent observations

No new natrual or human triggered or natural avalanches have been reported.

A list of OBSERVATIONS can be found here.

 

CURRENT CONDITIONS Today's Weather Observations From the Granite Weather Station at 7700 ft.:
0600 temperature: 29 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 34 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: W-SW
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 4 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 25 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
Total snow depth: NA inches
weather

Today a 10 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West southwest wind 14 to 16 mph.

Tonight a chance of snow before midnight, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West southwest wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...Mild temperatures will
continue on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Shower
chances will increase ahead of the front Wednesday through Wednesday
night, then decrease behind the front on Thursday. Temperatures will
be 5-10 degrees cooler on Thursday. Southwest flow aloft will return
on Friday yielding warmer temperatures once again, which will
continue through Saturday. Precipitation chances will increase as
the next upper trough/cold front enter the PacNW. Showers will
linger on Sunday as the front moves through, which will also bring
cooler temperatures.

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast Produced in partnership with the NOAA-NWS
McCall Airport at 5021 feet.
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 34. South wind around 6 mph. A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Temperatures: high 38 deg. F. low 34 deg. F. high 51 deg. F.
Wind direction: south south south-southeast
Wind speed: calm-6 calm-6 6-8
Expected snowfall: 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
Granite Mountain at 7700 feet.
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather: A 10 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West southwest wind 14 to 16 mph. A chance of snow before midnight, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West southwest wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. West southwest wind 15 to 18 mph.
Temperatures: high 38 deg. F. low 31 deg. F. high 41 deg. F.
Wind direction: west-southwest west-southwest west-southwest
Wind speed: 14-16 11-18 15-18
Expected snowfall: 0 in. little to none in. 0 in.
Disclaimer

This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Payette National Forest and the Payette Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the West Central Mountains between Hard Butte on the north and Council Mountain on the south. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.